E-commerce Statistics 2026: 32 Verified Data Points on US Online Retail

By Christoph Olivier | Published July 26, 2026 | Last updated July 26, 2026

This briefing collects verified US e-commerce statistics for 2026, with every figure tied to a named source and a working link. Government figures from the U.S. Census Bureau are labeled as actuals. Market projections from eMarketer are labeled as forecasts. Where a number depends on methodology (for example, conversion rate), that is stated plainly. Figures that could not be verified against a source were excluded.

Executive summary

• US retail e-commerce sales were $326.7 billion in the first quarter of 2026 (seasonally adjusted), up 9.8% year over year, per the U.S. Census Bureau.
• E-commerce reached 16.9% of total US retail sales in Q1 2026 (seasonally adjusted), up from 15.9% a year earlier.
• For full-year 2025, US e-commerce totaled $1,233.7 billion, up 5.4% from 2024, and made up 16.4% of total retail.
• E-commerce grew faster than total retail in every recent period measured by Census: 5.4% vs 3.5% for full-year 2025, and 9.8% vs about 3.9% in Q1 2026.
• US online holiday sales set a record of $257.8 billion from November 1 to December 31, 2025, up 6.8%, per Adobe Analytics.
• Smartphones accounted for 56.4% of online transactions during the 2025 holiday season, per Adobe Analytics.
• The average documented cart abandonment rate is 70.22%, per the Baymard Institute.
• eMarketer forecasts US commerce media ad spending to reach $142.07 billion by 2030 (a forecast, not an actual).

Key findings

1. US retail e-commerce sales, Q1 2026, seasonally adjusted: $326.7 billion, up 2.7% from Q4 2025. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Q1 2026 (released May 18, 2026). Government actual.
2. Q1 2026 e-commerce growth year over year: 9.8%. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Government actual.
3. E-commerce share of total US retail, Q1 2026 (seasonally adjusted): 16.9%, up from 15.9% a year earlier. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Government actual.
4. Total US e-commerce sales, full-year 2025: $1,233.7 billion, up 5.4% from 2024. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Q4 2025 (released March 10, 2026). Government actual.
5. E-commerce share of total US retail, 2025: 16.4% (2024: 16.1%). Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Q4 2025. Government actual.
6. Total US retail sales growth, 2025: 3.5% vs 5.4% for e-commerce. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Q4 2025. Government actual.
7. Q4 2025 e-commerce, seasonally adjusted: $316.1 billion, up 5.3% year over year, 16.6% of total retail. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Q4 2025. Government actual.
8. Q4 2025 e-commerce, not adjusted: $365.2 billion, 18.3% of total retail. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Q4 2025. Government actual.
9. US online holiday sales, Nov 1 to Dec 31, 2025: record $257.8 billion, up 6.8% year over year. Source: Adobe Analytics (January 7, 2026). Analytics actual.
10. Cyber Monday 2025 US online spending: record $14.25 billion, up 7.1%. Source: Adobe Analytics. Analytics actual.
11. Black Friday 2025 US online spending: record $11.8 billion, up 9.1%. Source: Adobe Analytics. Analytics actual.
12. Cyber Week 2025 (five days) US online spending: $44.2 billion, up 7.7%. Source: Adobe Analytics. Analytics actual.
13. Smartphone share of holiday 2025 online transactions: 56.4% (up from 54.5% in 2024). Source: Adobe Analytics. Analytics actual.
14. Average online cart abandonment rate: 70.22%, an average of 50 studies. Source: Baymard Institute (updated September 22, 2025). Benchmark meta-analysis.
15. US commerce media ad spending by 2030: forecast $142.07 billion, 23.9% of all US digital ad spending. Source: eMarketer (June 24, 2026). Forecast.

US e-commerce sales and growth (Census actuals)

The U.S. Census Bureau’s Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales report is the primary government measure of US online retail. It is a Tier 1 source. The most recent release covered the first quarter of 2026.

Context: e-commerce has outgrown total retail in every recent quarter. In Q1 2026, online sales rose 9.8% while total retail rose about 3.9%, roughly two and a half times faster. Over full-year 2025, e-commerce rose 5.4% versus 3.5% for total retail.

Limitation: seasonally adjusted and not-adjusted figures are not interchangeable. Seasonal adjustment removes the holiday spike, which is why seasonally adjusted Q1 2026 ($326.7 billion) can exceed seasonally adjusted Q4 2025 ($316.1 billion) even though the unadjusted holiday quarter ($365.2 billion) is larger.

Citation: Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales, Q1 2026 and Q4 2025.

Holiday season online sales (Adobe actuals)

Adobe Analytics measures online transactions at large US retailers based on direct visits to retail sites. It is a Tier 2 source: a proprietary panel, not a government census, but reporting measured actuals for a defined period rather than a forecast.

Adobe also reported that traffic to US retail sites from generative AI tools rose 693.4% year over year across the holiday season, a fast-growing but still small referral channel.

Limitation: Adobe measures online sales at major US retailers and is not directly comparable or additive to Census totals. The two use different scopes and methods.

Citation: Source: Adobe Analytics, 2025 Holiday Shopping Season (January 7, 2026).

Mobile commerce

The strongest verified mobile figure is Adobe’s: 56.4% of online transactions during the 2025 holiday season came from smartphones, up from 54.5% in 2024. That is a transaction share for the holiday window, not a full-year dollar share of all e-commerce.

Limitation: mobile’s share of transactions is higher than its share of dollars, because mobile order values often run lower than desktop. A single authoritative full-year US mobile dollar share was not verified for this briefing and is therefore not stated as a precise figure here.

Citation: Source: Adobe Analytics, Holiday 2025.

Conversion rate and cart abandonment

Cart abandonment has a well-documented anchor. The Baymard Institute puts the average documented online cart abandonment rate at 70.22%, an average of 50 separate studies spanning 2006 to 2025. Contentsquare reports a comparable 70.19% for 2025. Both point to the same conclusion: roughly 7 of 10 carts are abandoned, and that rate has barely moved in a decade.

Conversion rate is harder to pin down. There is no single authoritative average, because figures depend on platform, traffic mix, industry, and how sessions are counted.

Limitation: conversion-rate figures are not directly comparable across vendors and should be treated as directional. Average order value is even less standardized; no cross-industry AOV figure met the verification bar for this briefing, so none is stated.

Citation: Source: Baymard Institute; Contentsquare.

Retail media and commerce media (eMarketer forecast)

Retail media is advertising sold by retailers against their own shopper data and traffic. Commerce media is the broader category that adds other transaction-rich environments. These are among the fastest-growing parts of digital advertising, but the leading published figures are forecasts, not measured actuals.

eMarketer forecasts US commerce media ad spending to reach $142.07 billion by 2030, equal to 23.9% of all US digital ad spending (published June 24, 2026). This is the figure verified directly from eMarketer for this briefing and it is a forecast.

Limitation and exclusion: some secondary reports cite a US retail media forecast near $71 billion for 2026. That specific annual figure sits behind eMarketer’s paywall and could not be verified against the primary release, so it is not stated here as a data point. Retail media forecasts also vary by firm because scopes and definitions differ; cross-source comparisons are directional, not exact.

Citation: Source: eMarketer, Commerce Media Ad Spending Forecast 2026 (forecast).

Original synthesis

1. Seasonally adjusted Q1 2026 online sales exceeded the seasonally adjusted holiday quarter

Logic: seasonally adjusted Q1 2026 e-commerce ($326.7 billion) was higher than seasonally adjusted Q4 2025 ($316.1 billion). Seasonal adjustment strips out the holiday spike, so a higher adjusted first quarter signals underlying momentum rather than a holiday effect. Inputs: U.S. Census Bureau Q1 2026 release; U.S. Census Bureau Q4 2025 release. Limitation: on an unadjusted basis the holiday quarter is still the largest ($365.2 billion in Q4 2025); the adjusted comparison describes trend, not what consumers experienced.

2. E-commerce is outpacing total retail by roughly 2.5x

Logic: dividing e-commerce growth by total retail growth gives a “growth premium.” For Q1 2026, 9.8% divided by about 3.9% is roughly 2.5x. For full-year 2025, 5.4% divided by 3.5% is about 1.5x. The premium widened into early 2026. Inputs: U.S. Census Bureau Q1 2026 and Q4 2025 releases. Limitation: quarterly year-over-year rates are more volatile than annual rates; the Q1 2026 total-retail figure of about 3.9% is drawn from the Census release commentary.

3. The 2025 holiday online season equals roughly one-fifth of annual online spend

Logic: Adobe’s measured holiday online sales ($257.8 billion, Nov 1 to Dec 31, 2025) are about 20.9% of the Census full-year 2025 e-commerce total ($1,233.7 billion). This frames how concentrated online demand is in the final two months. Inputs: Adobe Analytics Holiday 2025; U.S. Census Bureau Q4 2025. Limitation: Adobe and Census use different scopes and methods, so the two are not strictly additive; treat the ratio as an indicative cross-source comparison, not an exact proportion.

Methodology

Source selection: primary government data (U.S. Census Bureau) was preferred for sales totals, growth, and share. Proprietary transaction analytics (Adobe Analytics) was used for holiday and mobile figures because no government source measures single-day online spend. A meta-analysis (Baymard Institute) was used for cart abandonment. A published market forecast (eMarketer) was used for commerce media, clearly labeled as a projection.

Inclusion rules: every figure required a named source, a specific time period, a US geography, and a working link, and had to be verified against the source. Census figures were read directly from the Bureau’s release documents. Exclusion rules: any figure that could not be verified against its source (for example, the paywalled retail media 2026 dollar figure and any single cross-industry average order value) was left out.

Conflict handling: where sources disagreed (conversion rate), a range with named sources was reported rather than a single number. Where measures differed (seasonally adjusted vs not adjusted), both were shown and the difference explained. Date of last update: July 26, 2026.

Source quality ranking

Tier 1 (primary, government): U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales, Q1 2026 (CB26-81) and Q4 2025 (CB26-42).

Tier 2 (credible market research and analytics): Adobe Analytics (holiday and mobile actuals); Baymard Institute (cart abandonment meta-analysis); eMarketer (commerce media forecast); Contentsquare (abandonment and conversion benchmarks).

Tier 3 (reputable specialist benchmarks and commentary): Littledata (Shopify conversion benchmarks); IRP Commerce (UK/Ireland SME conversion data), used only for directional context.

Journalist notes

Most quotable statistics

• US e-commerce reached $326.7 billion in Q1 2026 (seasonally adjusted), up 9.8% year over year. Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
• E-commerce was 16.9% of total US retail in Q1 2026, up from 15.9% a year earlier. Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
• US online holiday sales hit a record $257.8 billion in 2025, up 6.8%. Source: Adobe Analytics.
• Smartphones drove 56.4% of holiday online transactions. Source: Adobe Analytics.
• The average cart abandonment rate is 70.22%. Source: Baymard Institute.

Data limitations

Census seasonally adjusted and not-adjusted figures are not interchangeable. Adobe measures online sales at major US retailers and is not additive to Census totals. Conversion-rate averages vary by vendor and methodology. Average order value could not be verified to a single authoritative US figure and is omitted. The eMarketer commerce media number is a 2030 forecast. Census also noted a federal funding lapse affecting its release calendar, which may shift future publication dates.

Downloadable dataset: recommended fields

metric_name; value; unit; geography; time_period; measure_basis (seasonally adjusted or not adjusted); figure_type (government actual, analytics actual, forecast, benchmark); source_organization; source_url; release_date; year_over_year_change_percent; notes_and_limitations.

Press summary

US e-commerce continued to outgrow total retail through early 2026. The U.S. Census Bureau reported $326.7 billion in seasonally adjusted retail e-commerce sales for the first quarter of 2026, up 9.8% year over year, versus about 3.9% growth for total retail. Online sales reached 16.9% of total retail, up from 15.9% a year earlier. For full-year 2025, e-commerce totaled $1,233.7 billion, up 5.4%, and made up 16.4% of retail. The 2025 holiday season set records: Adobe Analytics measured $257.8 billion in US online sales from November 1 to December 31, up 6.8%, with Cyber Monday at $14.25 billion and Black Friday at $11.8 billion, both records. Smartphones handled 56.4% of holiday online transactions. Friction remains: the Baymard Institute puts the average cart abandonment rate at 70.22%. Looking ahead, eMarketer forecasts US commerce media ad spending to reach $142.07 billion by 2030. Census figures are government actuals; eMarketer figures are forecasts.

Suggested headlines

• US E-commerce Hits $326.7 Billion in Q1 2026 as Online Share Climbs to 16.9%
• Online Retail Grew Nearly 3x Faster Than Total Retail in 2025, Census Data Shows
• Americans Spent a Record $257.8 Billion Online Over the 2025 Holidays
• Mobile Now Drives 56.4% of Holiday Online Transactions
• Cart Abandonment Still Sits at 70% After a Decade of Checkout Fixes

Frequently asked questions

How big is US e-commerce in 2026?
US retail e-commerce sales were $326.7 billion in the first quarter of 2026 on a seasonally adjusted basis, up 9.8% from the first quarter of 2025, according to the U.S. Census Bureau (released May 18, 2026). For full-year 2025, total e-commerce sales were $1,233.7 billion.

What percentage of retail sales are e-commerce in the US?
E-commerce accounted for 16.9% of total US retail sales in the first quarter of 2026 on a seasonally adjusted basis, up from 15.9% a year earlier. For full-year 2025 the share was 16.4%, per the U.S. Census Bureau.

How fast is US e-commerce growing?
US e-commerce sales grew 9.8% year over year in the first quarter of 2026 while total retail sales grew about 3.9%, per the U.S. Census Bureau. For full-year 2025, e-commerce grew 5.4% versus 3.5% for total retail.

What share of online sales happen on mobile?
During the 2025 US holiday season (Nov 1 to Dec 31), 56.4% of online transactions came from smartphones, up from 54.5% in 2024, according to Adobe Analytics. Adobe measures online transactions, not total e-commerce dollars.

What is the average shopping cart abandonment rate?
The average documented online shopping cart abandonment rate is 70.22%, an average of 50 studies compiled by the Baymard Institute (data spanning 2006 to 2025). Contentsquare reports a comparable 70.19% for 2025.

How much did US shoppers spend online during the 2025 holidays?
US consumers spent a record $257.8 billion online from November 1 to December 31, 2025, up 6.8% year over year, according to Adobe Analytics.

What was the biggest online shopping day in 2025?
Cyber Monday 2025 was the biggest online shopping day, with $14.25 billion in US online spending, up 7.1% year over year, per Adobe Analytics. Black Friday reached a record $11.8 billion, up 9.1%.

What is the average e-commerce conversion rate?
There is no single authoritative figure. Reported averages range from about 1.4% (Littledata, Shopify stores) to roughly 2.5% (Contentsquare, Q3 2025), depending on data source, platform, and methodology. Treat conversion-rate benchmarks as directional, not precise.

How large is retail media and commerce media advertising?
eMarketer forecasts US commerce media ad spending to reach $142.07 billion by 2030, accounting for 23.9% of all US digital ad spending (published June 24, 2026). This is a forecast, not an actual.

Did non-holiday quarters catch up to the holiday quarter in e-commerce?
On a seasonally adjusted basis, first-quarter 2026 e-commerce ($326.7 billion) exceeded seasonally adjusted fourth-quarter 2025 ($316.1 billion). On an unadjusted basis the holiday quarter is still larger ($365.2 billion in Q4 2025), because seasonal adjustment removes the holiday spike.

Primary sources:
U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales (Q1 2026);
U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales (Q4 2025);
Adobe Analytics, 2025 Holiday Shopping Season;
Baymard Institute, Cart Abandonment Rate;
eMarketer, Commerce Media Ad Spending Forecast 2026.