Holiday and Seasonal Retail Marketing Statistics: 55 Verified Data Points for 2026

This briefing compiles verified holiday and seasonal retail data from the primary sources the industry relies on: the National Retail Federation (NRF), Adobe Analytics, Deloitte, Salesforce, and the U.S. Census Bureau. It separates measured results from forecasts, flags survey-based numbers against transaction-measured ones, and covers total holiday sales and growth, the online versus in-store split, Black Friday and Cyber Monday spend, per-shopper spending, mobile share, and promotional depth. Every figure carries a publisher, year, geography, and a link to the source.

Executive Summary

• U.S. holiday retail sales (Nov. 1 to Dec. 31, 2025) grew 4.1% year over year and exceeded $1 trillion for the first time, per the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor measured transaction data released January 2026 (Source: NRF, 2026).
• NRF had forecast 2025 U.S. holiday growth of 3.7% to 4.2%, or $1.01 trillion to $1.02 trillion; the 4.1% actual landed near the top of that range (Source: NRF forecast, 2025).
• U.S. online holiday sales reached a record $257.8 billion (Nov. 1 to Dec. 31, 2025), up 6.8% year over year, according to Adobe Analytics measured e-commerce data (Source: Adobe Analytics, 2026).
• A record 202.9 million U.S. consumers shopped over the five-day Thanksgiving-through-Cyber-Monday weekend in 2025, up from 197 million in 2024, per an NRF and Prosper Insights survey (Source: NRF survey, 2025).
• U.S. consumers planned to spend an average of $890.49 per person on gifts, food, decorations, and other seasonal items in 2025, the second-highest figure in NRF’s 23-year survey history (Source: NRF survey by Prosper Insights, 2025).
• Deloitte’s survey found average planned shopper spending of $1,595 in 2025, down 10% from 2024, reflecting value-seeking behavior and economic caution (Source: Deloitte Holiday Retail Survey, 2025).
• Mobile devices accounted for 56.4% of U.S. online holiday sales in 2025, up from 54.5% in 2024, per Adobe Analytics (Source: Adobe Analytics, 2026).
• U.S. e-commerce was 17.9% of total retail sales on a non-adjusted basis in Q4 2024, the peak-season quarter, per the U.S. Census Bureau (Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2025).

Key Findings

• U.S. holiday retail sales grew 4.1% year over year from Nov. 1 to Dec. 31, 2025, and topped $1 trillion for the first time (Source: NRF Retail Monitor, 2026).
• 2024 U.S. holiday sales rose 4.3% over 2023 to $976.1 billion, the prior-year baseline (Source: NRF, 2025).
• U.S. online holiday sales hit a record $257.8 billion in 2025, up 6.8% year over year (Source: Adobe Analytics, 2026).
• U.S. online holiday sales were $241.4 billion in 2024, up 8.7% year over year, per Adobe (Source: Adobe Analytics, 2025).
• U.S. Cyber Monday online spending reached a record $14.25 billion in 2025, up 7.1% year over year (Source: Adobe Analytics, 2025).
• U.S. Black Friday online spending reached a record $11.8 billion in 2025, up 9.1% year over year (Source: Adobe Analytics, 2026).
• U.S. Thanksgiving Day online spending reached $6.4 billion in 2025, up 5.3% year over year (Source: Adobe Analytics, 2026).
• Mobile devices drove 56.4% of U.S. online holiday sales in 2025, up from 54.5% in 2024 (Source: Adobe Analytics, 2026).
• A record 202.9 million U.S. consumers shopped over Thanksgiving weekend in 2025, up from 197 million in 2024 (Source: NRF survey, 2025).
• U.S. consumers planned to spend $890.49 per person on average in 2025, of which $627.93 was earmarked for gifts (Source: NRF survey, 2025).
• Deloitte’s surveyed shoppers planned to spend an average of $1,595 in 2025, down 10% from 2024 (Source: Deloitte, 2025).
• 85% of U.S. holiday shoppers expected higher prices due to tariffs in 2025, per NRF’s survey (Source: NRF survey, 2025).
• U.S. e-commerce reached $257.8 billion in 2025 versus a total U.S. holiday retail figure just above $1 trillion, implying online was roughly a quarter of holiday retail (Source: Adobe, 2026; NRF, 2026).
• Salesforce measured record global online holiday sales of $1.29 trillion and $294 billion in the U.S. for Nov. 1 to Dec. 31, 2025 (Source: Salesforce, 2025).
• U.S. e-commerce was 17.9% of total retail sales on a non-adjusted basis in Q4 2024, up from prior quarters (Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2025).

Total Holiday Sales and Growth

Total U.S. holiday sales are the headline metric, and the two authoritative measured readings come from NRF’s transaction-based Retail Monitor and its published actuals. NRF forecasts the season before it happens, then reports the measured result in January.

NRF forecast 2025 U.S. holiday sales (Nov. 1 to Dec. 31) to grow 3.7% to 4.2% over 2024, reaching $1.01 trillion to $1.02 trillion (Source: NRF forecast, 2025). This was the first NRF forecast to cross the $1 trillion threshold. The measured result, from the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, showed 4.1% year-over-year growth and confirmed the season exceeded $1 trillion for the first time (Source: NRF, 2026). The prior-year baseline was $976.1 billion in 2024, up 4.3% over 2023 (Source: NRF, 2025).

The Retail Monitor uses actual anonymized credit and debit card transactions from Affinity Solutions and is not revised, which distinguishes it from the survey-based Census retail estimates that are revised over time (Source: NRF, 2026). One caveat: a late Thanksgiving in 2025 pushed Cyber Monday into December, adding a major shopping day to December’s total (Source: NRF, 2026). Deloitte, using a broader November-to-January window, forecast total U.S. holiday retail sales of $1.61 trillion to $1.62 trillion, up 2.9% to 3.4% (Source: Deloitte forecast, 2025). The Deloitte and NRF totals are not directly comparable because Deloitte’s window and category scope differ.

Online Versus In-Store

Online holiday sales are measured most directly by Adobe Analytics, which tracks e-commerce transactions across U.S. retail sites. In-store versus online participation is captured by NRF’s Thanksgiving-weekend survey.

Adobe measured record U.S. online holiday sales of $257.8 billion in 2025, up 6.8% year over year (Source: Adobe, 2026). In 2024, Adobe measured $241.4 billion online, up 8.7% (Source: Adobe, 2025). On the store side, NRF’s survey found 129.5 million U.S. consumers shopped in-store over Thanksgiving weekend 2025, up 3% from 126 million in 2024, while 134.9 million shopped online during Cyber Week, up 9% (Source: NRF survey, 2025). The Census Bureau’s structural read shows e-commerce was 17.9% of total U.S. retail sales on a non-adjusted basis in Q4 2024, the peak-season quarter, and 16.1% for full-year 2024 (Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2025).

These sources measure different things. Adobe tracks online transaction dollars, NRF’s weekend figures count shoppers (not dollars) from a survey, and Census measures the online share of all retail. Read together, they show online growing faster than total retail during the holidays while physical stores still drew the larger share of shopper participation.

Source: Adobe Analytics, 2025; Adobe Analytics, 2026.

Black Friday and Cyber Monday Spend

Black Friday and Cyber Monday are the two most-cited single-day online records, both measured by Adobe. The five-day period from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday is Adobe’s “Cyber Week.”

U.S. Cyber Monday online spending set a record at $14.25 billion in 2025, up 7.1% year over year, and was $13.3 billion in 2024, up 7.3% (Source: Adobe, 2025 and 2024). U.S. Black Friday online spending set a record at $11.8 billion in 2025, up 9.1%, and was $10.8 billion in 2024, up 10.2% (Source: Adobe, 2026 and 2024). U.S. Cyber Week online sales totaled $44.2 billion in 2025, up 7.7%, and $41.1 billion in 2024, up 8.2% (Source: Adobe, 2026 and 2024). On the buyer-count side, NRF measured that Black Friday remained the single most popular day, with a record 202.9 million U.S. shoppers across the full weekend in 2025 (Source: NRF survey, 2025).

Salesforce, measuring global rather than U.S.-only online sales, reported a record $336.6 billion in global Cyber Week spend in 2025, up 7%, with $79.6 billion in the U.S., up 5% (Source: Salesforce, 2025). Salesforce global figures are much larger than Adobe’s U.S.-only figures because of geographic scope; the two are not comparable line items.

Source: Adobe Analytics, 2024; Adobe Analytics, 2026.

Per-Shopper Spending

Per-shopper spending comes from surveys, not transaction data, so these figures are self-reported intentions and should be read as such. NRF and Deloitte both field annual surveys, and their headline numbers diverge because of different definitions and samples.

NRF’s survey found U.S. consumers planned to spend $890.49 per person on average in 2025 across gifts, food, decorations, and other seasonal items, the second-highest in the survey’s 23-year history and 1.3% below 2024’s record of $901.99 (Source: NRF survey, 2025). Of that, $627.93 was for gifts and $262.56 for other seasonal items (Source: NRF survey, 2025). The NRF survey polled 8,247 U.S. adults from Oct. 1 to 7, 2025, with a margin of error of plus or minus 1.1 percentage points (Source: NRF survey, 2025).

Deloitte’s survey reported a higher average of $1,595 per shopper in 2025, down 10% from 2024, with planned retail-goods spending down 14% and experiences down 6% (Source: Deloitte survey, 2025). Deloitte found Gen Z planned to cut spending 34% year over year and millennials 13%, while Gen X planned a 3% increase (Source: Deloitte survey, 2025). The NRF and Deloitte per-person figures are not directly comparable: they use different category scopes, sampling frames, and household-versus-individual framing, which is why one shows a modest dip and the other a sharp one.

Mobile Share and Payment Trends

Mobile share of online sales is measured by Adobe and has been rising for years. Flexible payment methods, especially buy now, pay later (BNPL), are also tracked by Adobe.

Mobile devices accounted for 56.4% of U.S. online holiday sales in 2025, up from 54.5% in 2024 (Source: Adobe, 2026). On Christmas Day 2025, mobile reached 66.5% of online sales, and on Thanksgiving Day it hit 61.6% (Source: Adobe, 2026). BNPL drove $20 billion in U.S. online holiday spending in 2025, up 9.8% year over year, with 82.2% of BNPL purchases made on mobile (Source: Adobe, 2026). On Cyber Monday alone, BNPL accounted for $1.03 billion (Source: Adobe, 2025). Salesforce measured 31% year-over-year growth in mobile wallet usage such as Apple Pay during fall 2025 (Source: Salesforce, 2025).

Promotions and Discount Depth

Adobe measures average discount depth against listed price by category during the peak season, which is the cleanest available read on holiday promotional intensity.

In the 2025 holiday season, average U.S. discount depths peaked at 30.9% off for electronics, 29.6% for toys, 25.1% for apparel, and 24.3% for televisions (Source: Adobe, 2026). On the demand-response side, Deloitte’s survey found 89% of shoppers planned to search for deals, 77% planned to trade down on brands or retailers, and 49% planned to make DIY gifts to stretch budgets in 2025 (Source: Deloitte survey, 2025). These behaviors are consistent with the value-seeking sentiment reflected in the survey’s economic caution, where 57% of respondents expected the economy to weaken in 2026 (Source: Deloitte survey, 2025).

Source: Adobe Analytics, 2026.

AI-Assisted Shopping

A newer holiday signal is traffic and orders influenced by generative AI tools and shopping agents. Adobe and Salesforce both began measuring this in the 2024 and 2025 seasons.

Adobe measured a 693.4% year-over-year increase in retail traffic from generative AI sources across the 2025 holiday season, and a 670% increase specifically on Cyber Monday (Source: Adobe, 2026). Salesforce reported that AI and shopping agents influenced 20% of all global online orders and drove roughly $67 billion in Cyber Week sales in 2025 through personalized recommendations and conversational service (Source: Salesforce, 2025). These are early-stage measurements off very small bases, so the triple-digit growth rate should be read as directional rather than as evidence of scale.

Original Synthesis

The three insights below are derived by CO Consulting from the cited public datasets. Each states its formula, inputs, and limits.

1. Online was roughly one quarter of U.S. holiday retail in 2025

Formula: Adobe measured online holiday sales ($257.8 billion) divided by NRF’s measured total holiday retail (just above $1 trillion) yields approximately 25%. Inputs: Adobe Analytics 2026; NRF Retail Monitor 2026. Limitation: Adobe and NRF use different site panels and category definitions, and NRF excludes automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants, so this ratio is an approximation, not a precise share.

2. Online holiday growth ran ahead of total holiday growth in 2025

Formula: Adobe online growth (6.8%) minus NRF total holiday growth (4.1%) gives a 2.7-point gap. Inputs: Adobe Analytics 2026; NRF Retail Monitor 2026. Limitation: the two series are measured independently with different methods, so the gap indicates direction (online outpacing total) rather than a precisely reconciled figure.

3. NRF and Deloitte disagree sharply on the direction of per-shopper spend

Formula: NRF’s per-person change (down 1.3%, to $890.49) compared with Deloitte’s (down 10%, to $1,595) shows a roughly 8.7-point divergence in reported intent for the same 2025 season. Inputs: NRF survey 2025; Deloitte survey 2025. Limitation: both are self-reported surveys with different category scopes and framing; the divergence illustrates how survey design drives holiday spending headlines and why forecasters should weight transaction-measured data more heavily.

Charts to Build

• Title: “U.S. holiday sales cross $1 trillion.” Data: NRF total holiday sales 2023 to 2025 with growth rates. Source: NRF. Insight: the season first exceeded $1 trillion in 2025. Citation-worthy because it is the definitive milestone chart.
• Title: “Online holiday sales, five-year record climb.” Data: Adobe online holiday totals and YoY. Source: Adobe Analytics. Insight: online sets a new record each year. Citation-worthy for e-commerce trend stories.
• Title: “Peak-day online spend: Black Friday vs. Cyber Monday.” Data: Adobe day-level totals 2024 to 2025. Source: Adobe. Insight: Cyber Monday remains the single biggest online day. Citation-worthy for event-day coverage.
• Title: “Mobile’s share of holiday e-commerce.” Data: Adobe mobile share 2024 to 2025 plus Christmas Day peak. Source: Adobe. Insight: mobile crossed 56% of online sales. Citation-worthy for mobile-commerce reporting.
• Title: “Discount depth by category, 2025.” Data: Adobe peak discounts. Source: Adobe. Insight: electronics and toys saw the deepest cuts. Citation-worthy for promotions and margin stories.

Inline chart: U.S. peak-day online spend, 2025 (Adobe Analytics)

Source: Adobe Analytics, 2026.

Methodology

Source selection prioritized primary publishers of holiday retail data: NRF for total U.S. holiday sales, forecasts, and consumer surveys; Adobe Analytics for measured online sales; Deloitte for its annual survey and forecast; Salesforce for global online and Cyber Week data; and the U.S. Census Bureau for the structural e-commerce share of total retail. Inclusion required a named publisher, a defined time period, a stated geography, and a public URL. Numbers that could not be traced to such a source were excluded.

Measured transaction data (Adobe, Salesforce, NRF Retail Monitor, Census) is distinguished throughout from survey data (NRF Prosper survey, Deloitte survey), and forecasts are labeled separately from actuals. Conflicting numbers, such as NRF versus Deloitte per-shopper spending, are presented side by side with an explanation of why they differ rather than reconciled into a single figure. Derived insights in the Original Synthesis section state their formula, inputs, and limitations, and are rounded approximations, not precise reconciliations. The Census Q4 2024 figures reflect the February 2025 release and carry the Bureau’s noted revision schedule. Geographies are U.S.-only unless a figure is explicitly labeled global (Salesforce). Last updated July 1, 2026.

Source Quality

Tier 1 (primary, government, official bodies): U.S. Census Bureau Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales; National Retail Federation forecasts, Retail Monitor, and consumer surveys. Tier 2 (credible measured market research and public-company data): Adobe Analytics, Salesforce, Deloitte Holiday Retail Survey and forecast. Tier 3 (reputable journalism and commentary): CNBC and trade outlets used only to locate primary releases, not as the numeric source of record. All statistics in this asset trace to Tier 1 or Tier 2 sources.

Most Quotable Statistics

• “U.S. holiday sales topped $1 trillion for the first time in 2025, growing 4.1% year over year” (NRF Retail Monitor, 2026).
• “Online holiday sales hit a record $257.8 billion in 2025” (Adobe Analytics, 2026).
• “Cyber Monday reached a record $14.25 billion online in 2025” (Adobe Analytics, 2025).
• “A record 202.9 million Americans shopped over Thanksgiving weekend in 2025” (NRF survey, 2025).
• “Mobile drove 56.4% of online holiday sales in 2025, and 66.5% on Christmas Day” (Adobe Analytics, 2026).

Data Limitations

Per-shopper spending figures from NRF and Deloitte are self-reported survey intentions, not measured spend, and the two diverge because of differing scope and framing. Adobe and Salesforce measure online transaction dollars only and do not capture in-store sales. NRF’s Thanksgiving-weekend figures count shoppers, not dollars. Salesforce figures are global unless labeled U.S. and are not comparable to Adobe’s U.S.-only totals. Census e-commerce data is subject to revision and lags the season by weeks. A late Thanksgiving in 2025 shifted Cyber Monday into December, affecting monthly comparisons. Generative-AI traffic growth is measured off a very small base and should be read as directional.

Recommended Dataset Fields

For a downloadable CSV: metric_name, value, unit, geography, time_period, data_type (measured or survey or forecast), publisher, release_year, source_url, notes. Suggested rows include total holiday sales, YoY growth, online sales, online YoY, Black Friday online, Cyber Monday online, Cyber Week total, per-person spend (NRF), per-shopper spend (Deloitte), mobile share, BNPL total, discount depth by category, and e-commerce share of total retail (Census).

Press Summary

The 2025 U.S. holiday season set records across the board. Total holiday retail sales crossed $1 trillion for the first time, growing 4.1% year over year according to the transaction-measured CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, near the top of NRF’s 3.7% to 4.2% forecast. Online sales reached a record $257.8 billion, up 6.8%, per Adobe Analytics, with Cyber Monday hitting $14.25 billion and Black Friday $11.8 billion, both records. Mobile devices drove 56.4% of online sales, and buy now, pay later added $20 billion. A record 202.9 million Americans shopped over Thanksgiving weekend. Surveys told a more cautious story on spending intent: NRF found average planned per-person spending of $890.49, down 1.3%, while Deloitte’s shoppers reported planning to spend 10% less amid tariff and economic concerns. The gap between measured records and cautious survey sentiment defined the season. All figures are U.S.-only unless noted.

Suggested Headlines

• U.S. Holiday Sales Cross $1 Trillion for the First Time in 2025
• Online Holiday Spending Hits Record $257.8 Billion as Mobile Tops 56%
• Cyber Monday Sets $14.25 Billion Record While Shoppers Chase Deeper Discounts
• Record 202.9 Million Americans Shopped Thanksgiving Weekend in 2025
• Measured Records, Cautious Wallets: The 2025 Holiday Retail Split

FAQ

How much did Americans spend on holiday retail in 2025?

Total U.S. holiday sales (Nov. 1 to Dec. 31, 2025) exceeded $1 trillion for the first time, growing 4.1% year over year (Source: NRF Retail Monitor, 2026).

What were 2024 holiday sales?

U.S. holiday sales rose 4.3% over 2023 to $976.1 billion in 2024 (Source: NRF, 2025).

How much did online holiday sales total in 2025?

U.S. online holiday sales reached a record $257.8 billion, up 6.8% year over year (Source: Adobe Analytics, 2026).

What was Cyber Monday 2025 online spending?

U.S. Cyber Monday online spending hit a record $14.25 billion, up 7.1% year over year (Source: Adobe Analytics, 2025).

What was Black Friday 2025 online spending?

U.S. Black Friday online spending reached a record $11.8 billion, up 9.1% year over year (Source: Adobe Analytics, 2026).

How much did the average person plan to spend in 2025?

NRF’s survey found an average of $890.49 per person, the second-highest in 23 years (Source: NRF survey, 2025).

Why does Deloitte report a higher per-shopper figure?

Deloitte’s survey reported $1,595 per shopper, down 10%, using a different category scope and framing than NRF (Source: Deloitte, 2025).

What share of online holiday sales came from mobile?

Mobile devices drove 56.4% of U.S. online holiday sales in 2025, up from 54.5% in 2024 (Source: Adobe Analytics, 2026).

How many people shopped over Thanksgiving weekend?

A record 202.9 million U.S. consumers shopped over the 2025 Thanksgiving weekend, up from 197 million in 2024 (Source: NRF survey, 2025).

What share of total retail is e-commerce during the holidays?

E-commerce was 17.9% of total U.S. retail sales on a non-adjusted basis in Q4 2024, the peak-season quarter (Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2025).

About This Research

This asset was compiled by CO Consulting, a research-driven growth-consulting firm, using only primary and measured sources. If your team needs a custom holiday retail data model or benchmarking analysis, you can book a consultation.

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