The best source of business formation data by industry is the U.S. Census Bureau’s Business Formation Statistics (BFS), which counts new applications for an Employer Identification Number (EIN) every month across 20 NAICS sectors. In 2025, Americans filed 5,671,836 business applications. Retail trade led with 1,166,015 (20.6%), followed by professional, scientific and technical services (764,007) and construction (519,090). Those three sectors produced 43.2% of all applications.
The latest release, dated October 14, 2026, covers September 2026: 534,947 seasonally adjusted applications, of which 147,331 were high-propensity (likely employers), and 29,022 projected employer businesses within four quarters. Every figure on this page was calculated from the Census bfs_monthly.csv time series file in that release, so the industry rows add up to the national totals. The next release, on November 12, 2026, applies the annual revision, which recodes industries for the past five years and recomputes seasonal factors, so expect the 2021 to 2025 sector numbers below to shift slightly.
Business applications by industry in 2025
This is the full-year 2025 view: every NAICS sector Census publishes, with total applications, the high-propensity subset, and the number of those applications Census projects will become employer businesses (first payroll) within four quarters. Annual figures are the sum of the twelve not seasonally adjusted months, which is how Census builds annual totals from the monthly file.
| Industry (NAICS) | Business applications, 2025 | Share of all | High-propensity applications | High-propensity share | Projected employer businesses within 4 quarters | Employers per 100 applications | Change in applications vs 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail trade (44-45) | 1,166,015 | 20.6% | 226,087 | 19.4% | 32,509 | 2.8 | +124.9% |
| Professional, scientific and technical services (54) | 764,007 | 13.5% | 191,504 | 25.1% | 51,468 | 6.7 | +67.2% |
| Construction (23) | 519,090 | 9.2% | 266,773 | 51.4% | 36,559 | 7.0 | +35.8% |
| Other services (81) | 483,258 | 8.5% | 73,236 | 15.2% | 25,408 | 5.3 | +47.7% |
| Administrative and support (56) | 377,364 | 6.7% | 63,753 | 16.9% | 20,492 | 5.4 | +58.8% |
| Transportation and warehousing (48-49) | 366,727 | 6.5% | 76,846 | 21.0% | 14,395 | 3.9 | +53.4% |
| Health care and social assistance (62) | 352,046 | 6.2% | 247,553 | 70.3% | 35,816 | 10.2 | +56.6% |
| Accommodation and food services (72) | 300,236 | 5.3% | 300,236 | 100.0% | 40,158 | 13.4 | +63.8% |
| Real estate and rental (53) | 271,556 | 4.8% | 32,698 | 12.0% | 12,937 | 4.8 | +21.2% |
| Finance and insurance (52) | 232,425 | 4.1% | 63,581 | 27.4% | 10,183 | 4.4 | +42.7% |
| Arts, entertainment and recreation (71) | 163,691 | 2.9% | 23,477 | 14.3% | 7,596 | 4.6 | +42.3% |
| No industry code assigned | 153,093 | 2.7% | 24,764 | 16.2% | 2,168 | 1.4 | +234.0% |
| Wholesale trade (42) | 114,740 | 2.0% | 30,276 | 26.4% | 5,761 | 5.0 | +13.9% |
| Information (51) | 110,329 | 1.9% | 19,852 | 18.0% | 5,015 | 4.5 | +50.6% |
| Educational services (61) | 86,290 | 1.5% | 14,597 | 16.9% | 4,653 | 5.4 | +45.3% |
| Manufacturing (31-33) | 84,445 | 1.5% | 31,511 | 37.3% | 5,645 | 6.7 | +25.6% |
| Management of companies (55) | 66,600 | 1.2% | 12,691 | 19.1% | 743 | 1.1 | +150.8% |
| Agriculture (11) | 47,012 | 0.8% | 7,361 | 15.7% | 718 | 1.5 | +4.0% |
| Utilities (22) | 7,270 | 0.1% | 876 | 12.0% | 279 | 3.8 | +131.1% |
| Mining (21) | 5,642 | 0.1% | 1,183 | 21.0% | 521 | 9.2 | -8.1% |
| All industries | 5,671,836 | 100% | 1,708,842 | 30.1% | 313,024 | 5.5 | +62.1% |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Business Formation Statistics, monthly time series, October 14, 2026 vintage. Annual totals are sums of not seasonally adjusted months. “Employers per 100 applications” is projected formations divided by applications, our calculation. High-propensity industry rows sum to 1,708,855 versus the published total of 1,708,842 because of rounding in the source file.
Three patterns stand out. First, retail volume has more than doubled since 2019 (+124.9%), but only 2.8 of every 100 retail applications are projected to become an employer within a year, the lowest rate of any large sector. Second, accommodation and food services shows a 100% high-propensity share. That is a definition, not a fluke: Census automatically flags every application coded to NAICS 72 as high-propensity. Third, applications with no industry code rose 234.0% since 2019, so a growing slice of filings cannot be assigned to any sector at all.
Latest month: business formation by industry, September 2026
For the most recent read, use the seasonally adjusted monthly numbers. They are what the Census press release reports, and they are the only fair way to compare one month with the month before. For year-to-date comparisons, use the not seasonally adjusted figures and compare the same months.
| Industry (NAICS) | September 2026 applications (seasonally adjusted) | Change vs August 2026 | January to September 2026 applications (not adjusted) | Change vs January to September 2025 | High-propensity applications, change vs January to September 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail trade (44-45) | 110,048 | +4.7% | 933,528 | +10.4% | +9.3% |
| Professional, scientific and technical services (54) | 78,937 | -1.7% | 728,921 | +29.6% | +9.1% |
| Construction (23) | 48,078 | +0.1% | 451,105 | +12.1% | +8.6% |
| Other services (81) | 42,149 | -2.0% | 408,654 | +9.0% | -16.4% |
| Administrative and support (56) | 38,030 | +0.7% | 356,589 | +21.4% | -8.9% |
| Transportation and warehousing (48-49) | 34,792 | -0.9% | 324,774 | +15.0% | -18.9% |
| Health care and social assistance (62) | 32,198 | -1.5% | 308,778 | +16.4% | +10.9% |
| Accommodation and food services (72) | 26,600 | -1.7% | 263,104 | +13.9% | +13.9% |
| Real estate and rental (53) | 23,857 | +0.9% | 237,282 | +18.4% | -1.8% |
| Finance and insurance (52) | 20,548 | +2.1% | 180,963 | +3.2% | -15.2% |
| Arts, entertainment and recreation (71) | 15,180 | +0.1% | 143,683 | +15.1% | -14.2% |
| No industry code assigned | 12,344 | -1.3% | 127,398 | +12.4% | +25.0% |
| Wholesale trade (42) | 9,997 | -0.6% | 90,698 | +1.7% | -7.2% |
| Information (51) | 13,806 | +4.3% | 116,919 | +39.8% | -3.7% |
| Educational services (61) | 8,554 | -1.1% | 79,396 | +20.0% | -7.2% |
| Manufacturing (31-33) | 8,114 | +2.2% | 70,243 | +5.5% | -9.1% |
| Management of companies (55) | 6,715 | -1.7% | 59,139 | +23.6% | +17.3% |
| Agriculture (11) | 3,892 | +0.9% | 36,476 | -2.6% | -17.4% |
| Utilities (22) | 540 | +3.1% | 5,221 | -8.5% | -28.4% |
| Mining (21) | 569 | +1.6% | 4,969 | +16.4% | +2.7% |
| All industries | 534,947 | +0.5% | 4,927,840 | +15.3% | +4.7% |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Business Formation Statistics, September 2026, released October 14, 2026 (CB26-163), and the accompanying time series file. Census notes that utilities (22) is not seasonally adjusted. Year-to-date changes are our calculation.
The 2026 story is that total applications are running +15.3% ahead of 2025 through September while high-propensity applications are up only +4.7%. Information applications are up 39.8% year to date, yet high-propensity information applications are down 3.7%. Read that as a surge in solo filings, not a surge in hiring startups. Professional services (+29.6% total, +9.1% high-propensity), health care (+16.4%, +10.9%) and accommodation and food services (+13.9%, +13.9%) are growing on both measures.
How high-propensity applications are defined by industry
The high-propensity series is the most useful number in the release for anyone who sells to new businesses, and its rules are industry-specific. Per the release’s explanatory notes, an application counts as high-propensity if it (a) comes from a corporate entity, (b) says it is hiring employees, (c) gives a first wages-paid date, or (d) carries a NAICS code in accommodation and food services (72) or in specific parts of construction (237, 238), manufacturing (312, 321, 322, 332), retail (44, 452), professional services (5411 legal, 5413 architecture and engineering), educational services (6111) and health care (621, 623).
That rule explains the spread in the table above: health care at 70.3% and construction at 51.4% contain large automatically flagged subindustries, while real estate (12.0%) and utilities (12.0%) have none. Two narrower subsets sit inside the high-propensity series. Applications with planned wages totaled 501,223 in 2025, and applications from corporations totaled 525,860. If you need the filers most likely to hire within months, planned wages is the tightest filter Census publishes.
How many business applications become employers, by industry
An EIN application is intent, not a business. The formation series answers the next question: how many of those applications turn into a business with payroll. Nationally, actual formations within four quarters were 296,531 from the 2022 applications (5.9 per 100), and Census projects 313,024 from the 2025 applications (5.5 per 100). By industry the yield ranges from 13.4 per 100 in accommodation and food services and 10.2 in health care to 2.8 in retail and 1.1 in management of companies.
Timing matters too. Among applications filed in 2022 that became employers within four quarters, the average wait from application to first payroll ran from about 1.0 quarters for January filers to about 1.8 quarters for March, June and September filers (Census BF_DUR4Q series). In practice, a new employer usually runs its first payroll roughly three to five and a half months after it files for an EIN.
Business formation statistics by year, 2019 to 2025
| Year | Business applications | High-propensity applications | High-propensity share | Applications with planned wages | Employer businesses formed within 4 quarters | Employers per 100 applications |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 3,498,990 | 1,316,191 | 37.6% | 478,640 | 280,266 (actual) | 8.0 |
| 2020 | 4,356,498 | 1,518,956 | 34.9% | 524,651 | 268,961 (actual) | 6.2 |
| 2021 | 5,390,816 | 1,841,954 | 34.2% | 638,140 | 315,318 (actual) | 5.8 |
| 2022 | 5,062,563 | 1,722,399 | 34.0% | 578,669 | 296,531 (actual) | 5.9 |
| 2023 | 5,469,302 | 1,848,540 | 33.8% | 613,708 | 314,777 (projected) | 5.8 |
| 2024 | 5,224,176 | 1,715,458 | 32.8% | 550,423 | 298,172 (projected) | 5.7 |
| 2025 | 5,671,836 | 1,708,842 | 30.1% | 501,223 | 313,024 (projected) | 5.5 |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Business Formation Statistics time series, October 14, 2026 vintage. Formations through 2022 are actual (first payroll observed); 2023 to 2025 are Census projections from the spliced BF_SBF4Q series, per the release notes. Shares and ratios are our calculation.
The 2025 total of 5,671,836 is a record and +62.1% above 2019. But the employer count barely moved: 280,266 employer formations from 2019 applications versus a projected 313,024 from 2025 applications, an increase of about 11.7%. The high-propensity share fell from 37.6% to 30.1%, and applications with planned wages (501,223) are barely above 2019 (478,640) and well below the 2021 peak (638,140). More filing, roughly the same number of new employers.
Business formation by state: 2025 top lines
The South filed 2,516,880 applications in 2025, 44.4% of the national total, followed by the West (1,388,857), Midwest (963,059) and Northeast (803,040). The ten states with the most applications:
| Rank | State | Business applications, 2025 | High-propensity share | Projected employer businesses within 4 quarters | Change vs 2019 | January to September 2026 vs same months of 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Florida | 647,734 | 31.4% | 28,063 | +65.2% | +15.7% |
| 2 | California | 553,931 | 38.9% | 44,765 | +51.7% | +18.1% |
| 3 | Texas | 544,146 | 27.8% | 31,219 | +78.3% | +13.6% |
| 4 | New York | 301,047 | 39.4% | 19,121 | +31.7% | +12.0% |
| 5 | Georgia | 254,582 | 27.6% | 9,799 | +47.9% | +16.1% |
| 6 | Illinois | 189,879 | 30.8% | 9,476 | +61.9% | +9.2% |
| 7 | North Carolina | 182,653 | 28.5% | 10,082 | +76.3% | +13.1% |
| 8 | Ohio | 168,207 | 25.5% | 7,218 | +77.1% | +16.7% |
| 9 | Pennsylvania | 161,275 | 28.7% | 8,141 | +57.0% | +9.0% |
| 10 | New Jersey | 161,138 | 29.2% | 8,339 | +43.4% | +16.1% |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Business Formation Statistics time series, October 14, 2026 vintage; percent changes are our calculation. The 50 states plus DC sum exactly to the U.S. total of 5,671,836; Puerto Rico (24,583 in 2025) is published separately.
On growth since 2019, the leaders are Wyoming (+301.9%, to 79,023), New Mexico (+133.4%), Delaware (+132.3%), Montana (+111.2%) and Washington (+102.0%). Treat Wyoming and Delaware with caution: both are popular states of legal domicile for out-of-state owners, so their counts measure filing, not local activity. Washington is the outlier in 2026, with applications down 18.8% year to date after a 28.6% jump in 2025. One important limit: the monthly file publishes state totals only, with no industry breakdown by state.
Business survival rates by industry (BLS)
Census tells you how many businesses start. The Bureau of Labor Statistics Business Employment Dynamics program tells you how many are still alive. The latest tables run to March 2026. Across all private industries, 78.9% of establishments that opened in the year to March 2025 were still operating a year later, 47.2% of the 2021 cohort survived five years, and 34.2% of the 2016 cohort survived ten (BLS Table 7, total private).
| Industry (NAICS) | Survived 1 year (opened by March 2025) | Survived 5 years (opened by March 2021) | Survived 10 years (opened by March 2016) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Accommodation and food services (72) | 85.3% | 56.3% | 42.9% |
| Retail trade (44-45) | 84.5% | 55.2% | 43.5% |
| Health care and social assistance (62) | 83.3% | 52.1% | 35.8% |
| Other services (81) | 82.4% | 55.4% | 42.6% |
| Real estate and rental (53) | 80.9% | 52.4% | 44.5% |
| Arts, entertainment and recreation (71) | 80.9% | 52.7% | 41.6% |
| Manufacturing (31-33) | 79.8% | 53.0% | 44.4% |
| Educational services (61) | 79.6% | 49.0% | 43.4% |
| Finance and insurance (52) | 79.4% | 48.9% | 38.5% |
| Construction (23) | 79.2% | 52.8% | 41.7% |
| Wholesale trade (42) | 77.7% | 47.6% | 34.6% |
| Transportation and warehousing (48-49) | 77.3% | 44.2% | 35.4% |
| Administrative and waste services (56) | 75.8% | 46.4% | 36.0% |
| Professional, scientific and technical services (54) | 74.7% | 44.7% | 34.4% |
| Information (51) | 73.3% | 41.4% | 30.5% |
| All private industries | 78.9% | 47.2% | 34.2% |
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business Employment Dynamics, Table 7, survival of private sector establishments by opening year, one file per NAICS sector, data through March 2026. Rates as published. BED counts establishments with employees, so it covers employer businesses only.
The result most people do not expect: restaurants and retail stores that make it to payroll survive better than average, while information and professional services firms survive worst. My read is selection. Only 2.8 of 100 retail applicants are projected to hire within a year, so the ones that do are already the committed operators, while low startup costs let more marginal consultancies and digital businesses register as employers and then close.
Which new-business markets are worth targeting: an industry scorecard
If you sell to new businesses (accounting, payroll, insurance, banking, software, websites, marketing), the raw application count is the wrong number to plan around. I score industries on three things: pool size (applications), quality (the share likely to hire, and employers per 100 applications) and staying power (five-year survival). This table combines the Census and BLS figures above for eight of the largest sectors.
| Industry | 2025 applications (pool size) | High-propensity share | Employers per 100 applications | 5-year survival (BLS) | What it means if you sell to these new businesses |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accommodation and food services (72) | 300,236 | 100.0% | 13.4 | 56.3% | Smallest pool here, best yield and survival. Strong fit for payroll, point-of-sale, insurance and equipment financing offers. |
| Health care and social assistance (62) | 352,046 | 70.3% | 10.2 | 52.1% | Mid-size pool, second-best yield. 70% are high-propensity, so most filers are worth a first touch. |
| Construction (23) | 519,090 | 51.4% | 7.0 | 52.8% | Large pool, above-average yield and survival. Best balance of volume and quality in the table. |
| Professional, scientific and technical services (54) | 764,007 | 25.1% | 6.7 | 44.7% | Large pool, average yield, below-average survival. Filter to high-propensity filers before you spend. |
| Other services (81) | 483,258 | 15.2% | 5.3 | 55.4% | Large pool, low yield, good survival once open. Most filers will not hire within a year. |
| Real estate and rental (53) | 271,556 | 12.0% | 4.8 | 52.4% | Mid-size pool, low yield and only 12% high-propensity. Weak target for employer-focused offers. |
| Transportation and warehousing (48-49) | 366,727 | 21.0% | 3.9 | 44.2% | Mid-size pool, low yield, weak five-year survival. Expect high churn in any list you build. |
| Retail trade (44-45) | 1,166,015 | 19.4% | 2.8 | 55.2% | Biggest pool, lowest yield of the large sectors. Most filers are not projected to run payroll within a year; target by planned wages, not by count. |
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau BFS (2025 applications, high-propensity share, projected formations) and BLS BED (five-year survival of the cohort that opened by March 2021). The verdict column is our interpretation, not a Census or BLS finding.
Worked example: sizing the new construction employer market
- Start with 2025 construction applications: 519,090.
- Apply the Census projection: 36,559 are projected to become employers within four quarters, or 7.0 per 100 applications.
- Apply first-year survival: 79.2% of new construction establishments are still open a year later, so roughly 28,955 of those employers (36,559 x 0.792) should still be operating after year one.
- Apply five-year survival: 52.8%, or roughly 19,303 still operating after five years.
- Divide by twelve for a monthly flow: about 3,047 new construction employers per month nationally, before you narrow to your state or trade.
This mixes two federal programs (Census counts firms from EIN filings, BLS counts establishments), so treat the output as an order-of-magnitude estimate, not a forecast. It still beats the common mistake of treating all 519,090 construction filings as prospects: roughly 93 of every 100 are not projected to run payroll within a year. If you are building an ideal customer profile around new businesses, the planned-wages and high-propensity filters are where to start.
What business formation data means for marketers
- Time your offer to the payroll window. First payroll typically lands one to two quarters after the EIN filing (2022 cohorts). Firms selling payroll, workers’ compensation or bookkeeping to new employers need to reach them in that gap. A CPA firm running lead generation for new-business clients should build the first touch around entity setup and the second around first payroll.
- Weight sectors by yield, not volume. Retail’s 1,166,015 applications project to 32,509 employers. Accommodation and food services’ 300,236 applications project to 40,158. The smaller sector produces more employers.
- Insurance and financing follow the high-propensity flag. An insurance agency targeting commercial lines will find the densest pools in construction (266,773 high-propensity applications in 2025) and health care (247,553).
- Get local data from the county file. Census publishes annual business applications by county about six months after year end on its BFS data page, which is the right input for a geographic direct mail or paid search plan.
- Do not quote applications as businesses. Our small business marketing statistics page uses the same September 2026 release (534,947 applications, 147,331 high-propensity) alongside the SBA’s count of existing small businesses. Keep the two concepts separate in any deck.
How to download BFS data by industry yourself
Census’s main BFS pages sometimes fail to load, but the files themselves download directly. Here is the exact path:
- Go to the Census BFS data page and open “Latest Monthly Business Formation Statistics Report.” Under “Additional Release Files,” the link labeled “BFS Time Series [2.764 MB]” is the file you want. The direct URL is
https://www.census.gov/econ/bfs/csv/bfs_monthly.csv. - Download the “BFS Monthly Data Dictionary” from the same list (PDF). It decodes every column value.
- Open the CSV. Columns are
sa,naics_sector,series,geo,year, thenjantodec. Each row is one year of monthly values. - Filter
geo= US (state rows exist only fornaics_sector= TOTAL). - Filter
sa= U for annual totals, or A for month-over-month comparisons. - Filter
series: BA_BA (all applications), BA_HBA (high-propensity), BA_WBA (planned wages), BA_CBA (corporations), BF_SBF4Q (actual plus projected employer formations within four quarters). - Sum
janthroughdecfor a calendar-year total. In Excel or Google Sheets, add a column with=SUM(F2:Q2). - Note the sector codes: NAICSRET is retail (44-45), NAICSMNF is manufacturing (31-33), NAICSTW is transportation and warehousing (48-49), NONAICS is unclassified.
The same steps in Python with pandas:
import pandas as pd
df = pd.read_csv("https://www.census.gov/econ/bfs/csv/bfs_monthly.csv")
m = ["jan","feb","mar","apr","may","jun","jul","aug","sep","oct","nov","dec"]
df[m] = df[m].apply(pd.to_numeric, errors="coerce")
q = df[(df.geo=="US") & (df.sa=="U") & (df.series=="BA_BA") & (df.year==2025)]
print(q.assign(total=q[m].sum(axis=1))[["naics_sector","total"]].sort_values("total", ascending=False))Census also offers a point-and-click Time Series/Trend Charts tool (programCode=BFS) if you want one series without the full file. If you would rather have someone turn this data into a target-market plan for your firm, you can book a consultation.
Before you quote these numbers
- They will be revised on November 12, 2026. The annual update recodes NAICS for the previous five years and recomputes seasonal factors. Expect small changes to every 2021 to 2025 industry figure above.
- An application is not a business. BA counts EIN filings on IRS Form SS-4, excluding tax liens, estates, trusts and some low-transition industries. Many never operate.
- Projections are model estimates. Formations for 2023 to 2025 applications are projected; actual first-payroll counts are only available through 2022 applications.
- Different programs, different units. BFS counts new firms from EIN filings. BLS BED counts establishments with employees. Do not divide one by the other and call it exact.
Frequently asked questions
Where can I find business formation data by industry?
The U.S. Census Bureau's Business Formation Statistics publishes monthly business applications for 20 NAICS sectors. Download bfs_monthly.csv from census.gov/econ/bfs, filter geo to US and series to BA_BA, and sum the months. In 2025, retail trade led with 1,166,015 applications, followed by professional services at 764,007 and construction at 519,090.
Which industry has the most new business applications?
Retail trade. It accounted for 1,166,015 of the 5,671,836 U.S. business applications in 2025, or 20.6%, per Census BFS. It was also the largest sector in September 2026, with 110,048 seasonally adjusted applications. Retail has the lowest employer yield of the large sectors, though: about 2.8 employers per 100 applications.
How many business applications were filed in 2025?
5,671,836, a record, per the Census Bureau's Business Formation Statistics (October 14, 2026 vintage). That is 62.1% above the 3,498,990 filed in 2019. Of the 2025 total, 1,708,842 were high-propensity applications, and Census projects 313,024 will become employer businesses within four quarters.
What is a high-propensity business application?
A Census subset of applications likely to become businesses with payroll. It includes applications from corporations, those hiring employees, those giving a first wages-paid date, and those in specific industries such as accommodation and food services, parts of construction and health care. High-propensity applications were 30.1% of all applications in 2025.
What percentage of new businesses survive by industry?
Per BLS Business Employment Dynamics data through March 2026, 47.2% of private establishments that opened in the year to March 2021 survived five years. Among 15 major sectors, accommodation and food services led at 56.3% and information was lowest at 41.4%. Ten-year survival for the 2016 cohort was 34.2% overall.
When is the next Business Formation Statistics release?
November 12, 2026, covering October 2026 data. It also applies the annual update, which revises industry codes for the previous five years, refreshes formation data from the Business Dynamics Statistics program and recomputes seasonal factors, so recent industry figures will shift.
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