Product Returns and Reverse Logistics Statistics for 2026

This research asset compiles verified product returns statistics from the two authoritative annual data series on the topic: the National Retail Federation (NRF) reports produced with Appriss Retail and Happy Returns, and the Appriss Retail research conducted with Deloitte. Returns now move hundreds of billions of dollars of merchandise backward through the supply chain each year, and the figures below matter because they quantify a cost that sits between retail revenue and profit, drive reverse-logistics investment, and shape return-policy decisions. Every number is attributed to its publisher and year, and where two data series disagree we show both and explain why.

A note on comparability before the data: the headline figures differ by source because of definitions. NRF/Happy Returns reports a higher total returns value and return rate because it surveys retailers on their own estimated return rates and applies them to broad total retail sales. Appriss Retail/Deloitte reports a lower total and rate because it measures returns against the U.S. Census Bureau total retail sales base of $5.19 trillion. Read the two as complementary, not interchangeable.

Executive Summary

• US retail returns were projected to total $890 billion in 2024, equal to 16.9% of retailers’ annual sales, per the National Retail Federation and Happy Returns (survey-based estimate, US, 2024). Source.
• By a separate measured series, US returns totaled $685 billion in 2024, or 13.21% of $5.19 trillion in total retail sales, per Appriss Retail and Deloitte (measured against Census data, US, 2024). Source.
• Online purchases were returned at 17.6% in 2023 versus 10.02% for pure brick-and-mortar purchases, per NRF and Appriss Retail (US, 2023). Source.
• Fraudulent returns and claims cost US retailers $103 billion in 2024, representing 15.14% of all returns, per Appriss Retail and Deloitte (US, 2024). Source.
• 76% of US consumers said free returns are an important consideration when shopping with a retailer online in 2024, per NRF and Happy Returns (survey, US, 2024). Source.
• 51% of Gen Z consumers reported bracketing, buying multiple versions of an item intending to return some, per NRF and Happy Returns (survey, US, 2024). Source.
• An estimated 9.5 billion pounds of returned goods ended up in US landfills, generating roughly 24 million metric tons of CO2, per an Optoro estimate (US, 2022). Source.
• Total US returns were projected to reach $849.9 billion in 2025, a slight decrease from the 2024 estimate, per NRF and Happy Returns (US, 2025). Source.

Key Findings

• US retail returns were projected at $890 billion in 2024, up from an estimated $743 billion returned in 2023, per NRF and Happy Returns (US). NRF, 2024.
• Retailers estimated 16.9% of their annual sales would be returned in 2024, per NRF and Happy Returns (survey, US, 2024). NRF, 2024.
• Measured against Census total retail sales, the 2024 return rate was 13.21% on $685 billion of returns, per Appriss Retail and Deloitte (US, 2024). Appriss Retail, 2024.
• Online purchases carried a 17.6% return rate in 2023, equal to $247 billion returned, per NRF and Appriss Retail (US, 2023). NRF, 2023.
• Pure brick-and-mortar purchases had a 10.02% return rate in 2023, equal to $371 billion, per NRF and Appriss Retail (US, 2023). NRF, 2023.
• An estimated 19.3% of online sales were projected to be returned in 2025, per NRF and Happy Returns (US, 2025). NRF, 2025.
• Return fraud and abuse cost US retailers $101 billion in 2023, meaning retailers lost $13.70 for every $100 in returned merchandise, per NRF and Appriss Retail (US, 2023). NRF, 2023.
• Fraudulent returns and claims rose to $103 billion in 2024, 15.14% of all returns, per Appriss Retail and Deloitte (US, 2024). Appriss Retail, 2024.
• 60% of surveyed retailers reported wardrobing, in which a consumer buys an item, uses it, and returns it, per Appriss Retail and Deloitte (US, 2024). Appriss Retail, 2024.
• Holiday returns were projected at $148 billion in 2023 at a 15.4% rate, higher than the annual rate, per NRF and Appriss Retail (US, 2023). NRF, 2023.
• For the 2024 winter holidays, retailers expected return rates 17% higher on average than their annual return rate, per NRF and Happy Returns (US, 2024). NRF, 2024.
• 82% of consumers said free returns are an important consideration when shopping online, per NRF and Happy Returns (survey, US, 2025). NRF, 2025.
• 84% of consumers said they are more likely to shop with retailers offering no-box, no-label returns, per NRF and Happy Returns (survey, US, 2024). NRF, 2024.
• 67% of consumers said a negative return experience would discourage them from shopping with a retailer again, per NRF and Happy Returns (survey, US, 2024). NRF, 2024.
• An estimated 9.5 billion pounds of returned goods reached US landfills, producing about 24 million metric tons of CO2, per an Optoro estimate (US, 2022). Optoro, 2022.

Total Returns Value and Rate

Two annual data series measure the size of US returns, and they disagree by design. Understanding the definitional gap is essential before quoting either figure.

US retail returns were projected to total $890 billion in 2024, per NRF and Happy Returns (US, 2024). Retailers surveyed estimated 16.9% of their annual sales would be returned, per NRF and Happy Returns (US, 2024). The comparable 2023 figure was $743 billion of merchandise returned at a 14.5% total return rate, per NRF and Appriss Retail (US, 2023). NRF later projected $849.9 billion in total returns for 2025, a slight decrease from the 2024 estimate, per NRF and Happy Returns (US, 2025). Source: NRF, 2025 Retail Returns Landscape.

The Appriss Retail and Deloitte series reports lower absolute figures because it measures returns against the U.S. Census Bureau total retail sales base. That series put 2024 returns at $685 billion, or 13.21% of $5.19 trillion in total retail sales, per Appriss Retail and Deloitte (US, 2024). Source: Appriss Retail, 2024. The gap between $890 billion and $685 billion for the same year reflects different sales denominators and estimation methods, not a factual contradiction. NRF applies retailer-surveyed return rates to a broad sales base; Appriss/Deloitte anchors to Census data. Both are credible; neither should be presented as the single true number.

Online vs In-Store Returns

Channel matters more than any other single factor in return rates. Online purchases are returned at roughly twice the rate of items bought in physical stores.

Online purchases carried a 17.6% return rate in 2023, equal to $247 billion of merchandise, per NRF and Appriss Retail (US, 2023). Pure brick-and-mortar purchases had a 10.02% return rate that year, equal to $371 billion, per NRF and Appriss Retail (US, 2023). Source: NRF, 2023. NRF later projected that 19.3% of online sales would be returned in 2025, per NRF and Happy Returns (US, 2025). Source: NRF, 2025. The practical meaning is that a retailer’s return exposure scales with its online share of sales, which is why reverse-logistics investment concentrates on e-commerce fulfillment. One definitional caution: the brick-and-mortar figure excludes online orders returned in store, so the true in-store returns volume that stores physically handle is larger than the pure brick-and-mortar rate suggests.

The Cost of Returns and Reverse Logistics

Returns are not free to process. Beyond the refunded merchandise value, retailers absorb shipping, restocking, inspection, and disposal costs, and a large share of returned goods never resells at full value.

For every $1 billion in sales, the average retailer incurred $145 million in merchandise returns in 2023, per NRF and Appriss Retail (US, 2023). Source: NRF, 2023. Consumer friction over cost is significant: 76% of US consumers said free returns are an important consideration when shopping online in 2024, rising to 82% in the 2025 data, per NRF and Happy Returns. Source: NRF, 2025. The environmental cost is also material: an estimated 9.5 billion pounds of returned goods reached US landfills, generating about 24 million metric tons of CO2, per an Optoro estimate (US, 2022). Source: Optoro, 2022. The Optoro figures are a modeled estimate from 2022 and should be treated as directional rather than precise; they predate the higher 2024 returns totals, so current waste volumes are plausibly larger.

Return Fraud and Abuse

A meaningful and growing share of returns is fraudulent or abusive, and stricter return policies have not reversed the trend.

Return fraud and abuse cost US retailers $101 billion in 2023, meaning retailers lost $13.70 for every $100 in returned merchandise, per NRF and Appriss Retail (US, 2023). Source: NRF, 2023. Fraudulent returns and claims rose to $103 billion in 2024, representing 15.14% of all returns, per Appriss Retail and Deloitte (US, 2024). Source: Appriss Retail, 2024. Among surveyed retailers, 60% reported wardrobing, 55% cited returns using fraudulent or stolen tender, and 48% faced returns of stolen merchandise, per Appriss Retail and Deloitte (US, 2024). Source: Appriss Retail, 2024. Note a definition difference across series: the NRF 2025 landscape reported that 9% of all returns are fraudulent, a narrower measure than the Appriss/Deloitte 15.14% figure, which includes claims abuse. The two are measuring different things and should not be compared directly. Source: NRF, 2025.

Holiday Returns

Return volume spikes after the winter holidays, running above the annual average rate.

Holiday returns were projected at $148 billion in 2023 at a 15.4% rate, above the 14.5% annual rate that year, per NRF and Appriss Retail (US, 2023). Source: NRF, 2023. For the 2024 winter holidays, retailers expected return rates to run 17% higher on average than their annual return rate, per NRF and Happy Returns (US, 2024). Source: NRF, 2024. Retailers anticipated nearly $25 billion in fraudulent holiday returns in 2023, about 16.5% of total holiday returns, a higher fraud share than the annual figure, per NRF and Appriss Retail (US, 2023). Source: NRF, 2023. The seasonal lift is why 34% of retailers reported hiring seasonal staff specifically for returns handling, per NRF and Happy Returns (US, 2024). Source: NRF, 2024.

Free-Returns Expectations and Consumer Behavior

Consumer expectations around free, frictionless returns now shape where people shop, and a subset of shoppers deliberately over-purchase.

76% of US consumers said free returns are an important consideration when shopping online in 2024, and 82% said so in the 2025 data, per NRF and Happy Returns. Source: NRF, 2025. 84% of consumers said they are more likely to shop with retailers offering no-box, no-label returns, and 67% said a negative return experience would discourage them from shopping again, per NRF and Happy Returns (survey, US, 2024). Source: NRF, 2024. On the behavioral side, 51% of Gen Z consumers reported bracketing, and 45% of shoppers said it is acceptable to bend the rules when returning items, per NRF and Happy Returns (survey, US, 2024 and 2025). Source: NRF, 2025. These are self-reported survey figures and reflect stated attitudes, which can overstate or understate actual behavior.

Original Synthesis

The following three insights are derived by combining the verified figures above. Each states its formula, inputs, and limitations. None extends beyond what the source data supports.

1. The methodology gap between the two returns series

Insight: The two authoritative series disagreed by $205 billion on 2024 total returns ($890 billion NRF/Happy Returns minus $685 billion Appriss/Deloitte), a 23% difference relative to the higher figure. Formula: $890B minus $685B = $205B; $205B divided by $890B = 23.0%. Inputs: NRF/Happy Returns 2024 and Appriss/Deloitte 2024. Limitation: this is a definitional gap, not an error in either source; NRF uses retailer-surveyed rates on a broad base while Appriss/Deloitte measures against the Census $5.19 trillion base. The takeaway for journalists is to always name the source when quoting a returns total.

2. Online purchases return at roughly 1.76x the brick-and-mortar rate

Insight: Using the 2023 channel data, the online return rate of 17.6% is about 1.76 times the pure brick-and-mortar rate of 10.02%. Formula: 17.6% divided by 10.02% = 1.76. Inputs: NRF and Appriss Retail 2023 channel figures. Limitation: the brick-and-mortar rate excludes online orders returned in store, so this ratio measures returns by purchase channel, not by the channel where the return is physically processed. The ratio explains why a retailer’s blended return rate rises as its e-commerce mix grows.

3. Fraud has grown in absolute dollars even as measured return totals vary

Insight: Return fraud and abuse losses rose from $101 billion in 2023 to $103 billion in 2024, a roughly 2% year-over-year increase in absolute dollars. Formula: $103B minus $101B = $2B; $2B divided by $101B = 2.0%. Inputs: NRF/Appriss 2023 fraud figure and Appriss/Deloitte 2024 fraud figure. Limitation: the two years use overlapping but not identical methodologies and fraud definitions, so the 2% change is directional rather than a precise growth rate. The point stands that fraud losses did not shrink year over year.

Tables

Table 1: US retail returns by year

Sources: NRF 2023; NRF 2024; Appriss Retail 2024; NRF 2025. Note: the 2024 NRF and Appriss figures use different sales denominators and are not directly comparable.

Table 2: Return rate by channel, 2023

Source: NRF, 2023. Brick-and-mortar excludes online orders returned in store.

Table 3: Return fraud figures

Sources: NRF 2023; Appriss Retail 2024.

Table 4: Consumer returns expectations and behavior

Sources: NRF 2024; NRF 2025. Figures are self-reported survey responses.

Charts to build

• Chart 1: US total returns by year, 2023 to 2025. Data needed: annual total returns dollar value. Source: NRF reports 2023-2025. Insight: returns crossed $850 billion and stayed there. Citation-worthy because it visualizes the scale of the reverse-logistics problem over time.
• Chart 2: Online vs brick-and-mortar return rate, 2023. Data needed: channel return rates. Source: NRF/Appriss 2023. Insight: online returns run at roughly 1.76x the in-store rate. Citation-worthy because it isolates channel as the primary return-rate driver.
• Chart 3: Return fraud loss, 2023 vs 2024. Data needed: fraud dollar totals by year. Source: NRF 2023 and Appriss/Deloitte 2024. Insight: fraud losses grew year over year despite policy tightening. Citation-worthy for loss-prevention coverage.
• Chart 4: Two-series comparison of 2024 total returns. Data needed: $890B NRF vs $685B Appriss. Source: both 2024 reports. Insight: methodology drives a 23% gap. Citation-worthy because it teaches readers to attribute the number.
• Chart 5: Consumer free-returns expectation, 2024 vs 2025. Data needed: share citing free returns as important. Source: NRF 2024 and 2025. Insight: expectation rose from 76% to 82%. Citation-worthy for policy and CX coverage.

Methodology

Source-selection criteria: this asset prioritizes the two authoritative annual returns data series for the United States, the NRF reports produced with Appriss Retail and Happy Returns, and the Appriss Retail research with Deloitte. These are the primary industry benchmarks that journalists and analysts cite. Secondary and estimate-based figures (Optoro environmental modeling) are included only when clearly attributed and flagged as estimates. Inclusion rule: a statistic is included only when a specific number, year, and geography can be attributed to a named publisher. Exclusion rule: figures that could not be traced to a named publisher and year were excluded, and no numbers were invented or interpolated. Handling conflicts: where the NRF and Appriss series disagree (notably the $890B vs $685B 2024 totals), both are presented with an explanation of the definitional gap rather than picking one. Survey versus measured data: NRF/Happy Returns consumer figures are survey-based (2,007 consumers who returned an online purchase, plus 249 retail professionals in the 2024 report); Appriss/Deloitte combines measured returns data from more than 60 leading US retailers with a survey of 150 executives and 1,000 consumers and Census sales data. Derived estimates: the three synthesis insights use only arithmetic on published figures, with formulas shown. Data limitations: several figures are projections or retailer estimates rather than final measured totals; the Optoro environmental figures are a 2022 model. Date of last update: this asset reflects sources available as of July 2026.

Source Quality

Tier 1 (primary industry associations and measured data anchored to government sources): National Retail Federation annual returns reports, which pair retailer returns data with Census-based sales figures; Appriss Retail and Deloitte research, which measures returns from more than 60 leading US retailers against U.S. Census Bureau retail sales.

Tier 2 (credible commercial research and reverse-logistics firms): Happy Returns (a UPS company), co-author of the NRF consumer returns survey; Optoro, whose environmental impact model is a widely cited commercial estimate; Statista, a market-data aggregator that compiles the above.

Tier 3 (reputable business journalism reporting the above figures): Retail Brew, Retail Dive, Retail TouchPoints, Chain Store Age, and similar trade outlets, used here only to corroborate primary figures.

Most Quotable Statistics

• US retail returns were projected to total $890 billion in 2024, 16.9% of retailers’ annual sales (NRF / Happy Returns, 2024).
• Fraudulent returns and claims cost US retailers $103 billion in 2024 (Appriss Retail / Deloitte, 2024).
• Online purchases were returned at 17.6% in 2023, nearly double the 10.02% brick-and-mortar rate (NRF / Appriss Retail, 2023).
• 82% of consumers said free returns are an important consideration when shopping online (NRF / Happy Returns, 2025).
• An estimated 9.5 billion pounds of returned goods reached US landfills in a year, generating about 24 million metric tons of CO2 (Optoro, 2022).

Data Limitations

• The NRF/Happy Returns and Appriss/Deloitte total-returns figures use different sales denominators and are not directly comparable; the 2024 gap is $205 billion.
• Several headline numbers are projections or retailer estimates, not final measured totals.
• Consumer preference and bracketing figures are self-reported survey data and can diverge from actual behavior.
• The Optoro environmental figures are a 2022 model estimate and predate the higher 2024 returns volumes, so current waste is plausibly larger.
• The brick-and-mortar return rate excludes online orders returned in store, understating the physical returns volume stores handle.
• Fraud shares differ by definition across series (9% in NRF 2025 versus 15.14% in Appriss/Deloitte 2024, which includes claims abuse).

Recommended Dataset Fields

A downloadable CSV of this asset should include: year; publisher; total_returns_usd; return_rate_pct; sales_base; channel; online_return_rate_pct; instore_return_rate_pct; holiday_return_rate_pct; fraud_loss_usd; fraud_share_pct; free_returns_important_pct; bracketing_pct; data_type (measured or survey or estimate); source_url. This structure lets analysts filter by year, channel, and data type while preserving attribution.

Press Summary

US product returns have settled at a scale of roughly $850 billion to $890 billion a year, depending on the measurement series. The National Retail Federation, working with Happy Returns, projected $890 billion in returns for 2024 at 16.9% of retailer sales, and $849.9 billion for 2025. A separate measured series from Appriss Retail and Deloitte put 2024 returns at $685 billion, or 13.21% of $5.19 trillion in total retail sales; the gap between the two reflects different sales denominators, not a factual dispute. Channel is the dominant driver: online purchases were returned at 17.6% in 2023 versus 10.02% for pure in-store buys. Return fraud is large and growing, costing retailers $101 billion in 2023 and $103 billion in 2024. Consumers increasingly expect free, frictionless returns, with 82% citing free returns as an important consideration in the 2025 data. Anyone quoting a single returns total should name the source and year, because the two authoritative series legitimately disagree.

Suggested Headlines

• US Retail Returns Hit $890 Billion in 2024, or $685 Billion, Depending on Who Is Counting
• Online Purchases Are Returned at Nearly Twice the In-Store Rate
• Return Fraud Cost US Retailers $103 Billion in 2024
• Why 82% of Shoppers Now Demand Free Returns
• The $205 Billion Gap: How Two Reports Measure the Same Year of Returns

FAQ

How much merchandise do US consumers return each year?

US retail returns were projected to total $890 billion in 2024, per NRF and Happy Returns (US, 2024). A separate measured series put the 2024 figure at $685 billion, per Appriss Retail and Deloitte. Source.

What is the overall retail return rate?

Retailers estimated 16.9% of annual sales would be returned in 2024, per NRF and Happy Returns; the measured Appriss/Deloitte rate was 13.21% of total retail sales. Source.

Are online returns higher than in-store returns?

Yes. Online purchases were returned at 17.6% in 2023 versus 10.02% for pure brick-and-mortar purchases, per NRF and Appriss Retail (US, 2023). Source.

How much does return fraud cost retailers?

Fraudulent returns and claims cost US retailers $103 billion in 2024, 15.14% of all returns, per Appriss Retail and Deloitte (US, 2024). Source.

What is wardrobing?

Wardrobing is buying an item, using it, and returning it; 60% of surveyed retailers reported it, per Appriss Retail and Deloitte (US, 2024). Source.

Do returns spike during the holidays?

Yes. Holiday returns were projected at $148 billion in 2023 at a 15.4% rate, above the annual rate, per NRF and Appriss Retail (US, 2023). Source.

Do consumers expect free returns?

82% of consumers said free returns are an important consideration when shopping online, per NRF and Happy Returns (US, 2025). Source.

What is bracketing?

Bracketing is buying multiple versions of an item intending to return some; 51% of Gen Z consumers reported it, per NRF and Happy Returns (US, 2024). Source.

What is the environmental cost of returns?

An estimated 9.5 billion pounds of returned goods reached US landfills, generating about 24 million metric tons of CO2, per an Optoro estimate (US, 2022). Source.

Why do returns reports disagree on the totals?

NRF/Happy Returns applies retailer-surveyed return rates to a broad sales base, while Appriss/Deloitte measures returns against the Census $5.19 trillion retail sales base, producing an $890B versus $685B gap for 2024. See our related work at CO Consulting. Source.

For teams working to reduce return rates or reverse-logistics cost, CO Consulting offers a research-led review; you can book a consultation.

Related research

• B2B Marketing
• B2B Sales
• Sales Enablement
• Public Relations (PR)
• Ecommerce Marketing